Daily Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The typical figure of per-day killings per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new administrative data. But, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide figures might not signal improved national stability.

Marked Reduction in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in last November compared with almost 87 when the President took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had during these months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Violent cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to confront the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main components of the President's security strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

But, public safety analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true considering the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this were a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the will to properly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it could obscure periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the country to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to create a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.