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Entering the world’s most-visited museum in the middle of the day, taking eight items of invaluable historical gems and disappearing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, executed for global fame and ensuing Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who study patterns in global cultural theft, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a string of quick-hit thefts focused more on the monetary worth of precious stones or metals than the historical importance, perpetuating a trend that has emerged over the last ten years in Germany, the UK and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of lesser importance to the criminals.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to take valuable jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” said Christopher A Marinello. “It's straightforward: it’s because these days a Cartier store is better protected.”

A series of aggressive retail store thefts indicate that many stores have beefed up their security in the past few years, with security personnel on their locations and merchandise no longer kept on display overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look vulnerable, partly because of the in-built factor of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and also the financial situation in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the globe have reduced spending on police and the culture sector,” noted Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it shows how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – including jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the tiara of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive crown once owned by a royal that the thieves left by the street on their way out – has naturally been compared with the historical theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, performed by the Italian handyman the thief.

More relevant comparisons may be the 2019 theft of jewellery from a German institution worth over €113m, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from a UK landmark the same year, the recent heist of a valuable item from a European museum or even a spate of robberies of sports memorabilia from US mining museums.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the artefacts were to stay whole, experts say, the thieves would struggle to find a buyer. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the licit market”, said an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, particularly given the Ministry of Culture has published photos of the pieces. Even a private collector or an sales venue would want to see paperwork establishing legal possession before handling such remarkable pieces.”

In the previous years, institutions were often reluctant to go public about the disappearance of famous works of art and would stay silent out of shame. Now, as cultural robberies are more reported on, the keeping and sale of stolen art is risky business for any criminal.

“Taking a famous painting, it has to remain intact or it becomes worthless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to conceal it, maybe by passing it around dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an accomplice informing authorities to collect a ransom.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been commissioned. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “Nobody would touch this. It's global news and in all the media. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you go to jail. You can't display it to your acquaintances, you cannot leave it to your family.”

Altering stolen works by melting down or reshaping does lower the value. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because modern cutting techniques give gems a bigger and brighter surface area, and older-style stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a concealment.

Crucially, however, dismantling or reshaping removes the evidence of the crime. “I suspect that the robbers will try to bring the stolen goods to places with gem knowledge like a country, another nation or even as nearby as Antwerp, and find someone to remove the stones,” suggested Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the institution, with a leaked official review expected to be released next month criticising “significant” and “ongoing” delays in updating systems and observing that security cameras were missing in many rooms. But specialists say showing precious items in older structures with a steady stream of visitors comes with dangers that are impossible to remove entirely.

“Older structures are more difficult to protect,” explained an art crime professor. “They often have nice big street-facing windows that makes it easy for thieves to get away, and there may be building protection statutes in place that mean you can’t fit them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The best security systems for structures should be designed “like a fortress”, said Peter Stürmann. “There should be multiple levels to deter attackers.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with advanced surveillance systems or in-built vibration sensors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but old museums may be reluctant to uglify their exteriors. Laser scanners can be hard to fit to decorated surfaces. Sensors may also have to be turned off during the day as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between morning hours in Paris, was typical of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either start or end of day. Frequently when guards change their shifts and before the museum is full of visitors who effectively act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more quickly and efficiently, but it has also given thieves new tools with which to bypass protections. In the city, the thieves reached the museum’s upper level with a mobile equipment and breached a glass pane with a battery-powered disc cutter.

Elaine Sciolino said the conversation in the country about the historic building had primarily focused on visitor management in the past decade, and less on security.

The institution has an in-house team of about 50 full-time firefighters, but their mission is mainly to protect the collection from fires and water damage. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to government support and funding, and at present the nation lacks sufficient resources.”